Biological invasion risk assessment of Tuta absoluta: mechanistic versus correlative methods

Abstract The capacity to assess invasion risk from potential crop pests before of new regions globally would be invaluable, but this requires the ability predict accurately their geographic range and relative abundance in novel areas. This may unachievable using de facto standard correlative methods as shown for South American tomato pinworm Tuta absoluta , a serious insect pest native America. Its global invasive was not identified until after rapid Europe, followed by Africa parts Asia where it has become major food security problem on solanaceous crops. Early prospective assessment its is possible physiologically based demographic modeling that have knowledge gaps T. biology at low temperatures. Physiologically models (PBDMs) realistically capture weather-driven mechanistic way allowing evaluation areas climes including climate change. PBDMs explain biological bases distribution, are generally applicable species any taxa, limited terrestrial ecosystems, hence can extended support ecological aquatic ecosystems. address lack unified general assessing managing becoming more predictive science.